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02-08-2009, 10:22 PM
krisgmil | Long term forecast
Hello everyone. Just wanted to get some opinions on the long term outlook for the Seawind- seems like a popular discussion right now in many other areas given our financial situation in Canada and the United States. I have been following the Seawind progress for about 7-10 yrs now but due to financial obligations and work haven't been able to make the plunge yet. I had the pleasure of visiting Mike in Regina over New Years and looked at his beautiful airplane that George Osborne did an amazing job with and this furthered my excitement about the options this plane allows that nothing else even comes close. However, I am now fast approaching a position that I can buy one and a few thoughts have been running through my head.
As the kit isn't being made anymore and the state of the certified Seawind seems to be still in a very dark place, maybe even more in the last few months with investors fleeing everything in every market, what will happen 10-15 yrs down the line if the certified version doesn't take flight and the kit is no longer available? We have seen some companies already offer up the last of their inventory for certain parts and if the certified version doesn't fly I am sure many other companies would follow suit. I say this not to be a pessimist as I love the plane and have had many a dream of owning one but it is a big investment. There have been many a car in the past that was a hit early on and, probably would have done well except for circumstances beyond the companies control, that ended up a collectors item that people couldn't really drive because parts couldn't be found anymore. With a plane it gets even more complicated- more specialized parts, very few mechanics or help with problems, and instructors that will get fewer and fewer.
I follow a few other blogs in other areas that promote discussion like this so I hope I am not offending anyone. Just want to hear people's opinions about this. As well- more pictures of people flying and their experiences would be nice too!
Cheers,
Kris Milbrandt
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
02-09-2009, 08:16 PM
tthunne | Long term outlook
Kris:
Even with a simple shop most of the mechanical parts of the Seawind can be easily reproduced. The hydraulic system could be purchased and replaced relatively easily. An hydraulic cylinder shop can reproduce the oleos' albeit relatively expensively but still within reason, the landing gear can also be reproduced relatively reasonably.
There was recently a question about the availability of a canopy and I know of no ready source for that item. The same is true for wings. That being said, depending on how determined one is I would expect that even those items could be duplicated with some difficulty. For instance, with some significant effort I believe I could reproduce a canopy myself. It would be a hell of a job with the greatest expenditure being time and effort, the same is true for a wing. Neither task is comfortably contemplated but they are well within the bounds of realistic effort if one is so determined.
The bottom line for me is that I feel relatively confident that I can, I should say could, keep my Seawind flying if I ever get the thing in the air. At this point I feel like Sisyphus in the process but if I keep at it maybe the Gods will relent, have pity and the boulder will stay on top of the hill and I can eventually fly away.
krisgmil | Long term forecast
Hello everyone. Just wanted to get some opinions on the long term outlook for the Seawind- seems like a popular discussion right now in many other areas given our financial situation in Canada and the United States. I have been following the Seawind progress for about 7-10 yrs now but due to financial obligations and work haven't been able to make the plunge yet. I had the pleasure of visiting Mike in Regina over New Years and looked at his beautiful airplane that George Osborne did an amazing job with and this furthered my excitement about the options this plane allows that nothing else even comes close. However, I am now fast approaching a position that I can buy one and a few thoughts have been running through my head.
As the kit isn't being made anymore and the state of the certified Seawind seems to be still in a very dark place, maybe even more in the last few months with investors fleeing everything in every market, what will happen 10-15 yrs down the line if the certified version doesn't take flight and the kit is no longer available? We have seen some companies already offer up the last of their inventory for certain parts and if the certified version doesn't fly I am sure many other companies would follow suit. I say this not to be a pessimist as I love the plane and have had many a dream of owning one but it is a big investment. There have been many a car in the past that was a hit early on and, probably would have done well except for circumstances beyond the companies control, that ended up a collectors item that people couldn't really drive because parts couldn't be found anymore. With a plane it gets even more complicated- more specialized parts, very few mechanics or help with problems, and instructors that will get fewer and fewer.
I follow a few other blogs in other areas that promote discussion like this so I hope I am not offending anyone. Just want to hear people's opinions about this. As well- more pictures of people flying and their experiences would be nice too!
Cheers,
Kris Milbrandt
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
02-09-2009, 08:16 PM
tthunne | Long term outlook
Kris:
Even with a simple shop most of the mechanical parts of the Seawind can be easily reproduced. The hydraulic system could be purchased and replaced relatively easily. An hydraulic cylinder shop can reproduce the oleos' albeit relatively expensively but still within reason, the landing gear can also be reproduced relatively reasonably.
There was recently a question about the availability of a canopy and I know of no ready source for that item. The same is true for wings. That being said, depending on how determined one is I would expect that even those items could be duplicated with some difficulty. For instance, with some significant effort I believe I could reproduce a canopy myself. It would be a hell of a job with the greatest expenditure being time and effort, the same is true for a wing. Neither task is comfortably contemplated but they are well within the bounds of realistic effort if one is so determined.
The bottom line for me is that I feel relatively confident that I can, I should say could, keep my Seawind flying if I ever get the thing in the air. At this point I feel like Sisyphus in the process but if I keep at it maybe the Gods will relent, have pity and the boulder will stay on top of the hill and I can eventually fly away.